000 AXNT20 KNHC 151202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE GHANA/IVORY COAST BORDER NEAR 5N3W TO 5N11W 6N23W 4N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W...TO 1S50W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 32W... AND IN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. OVERCAST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N41W 14N30W BEYOND 16N20W INTO AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 28N109W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 23N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO WESTERN CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER NORTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF WATERS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. GALE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR 16/0600 UTC. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE WESTERN GULF WATERS DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THE SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW APPEARS TO BE RELAXED GIVEN THE COMPARATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO WESTERN CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 25N55W 20N57W 15N58W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...STILL NOT DIRECTLY REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES FROM JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO 27N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO WESTERN CUBA. THE FRONT CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/YUCATAN CHANNEL AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 31N60W EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING ONLY A TROUGH ALONG 32N57W 27N60W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 50W. $$ MT