000 AXNT20 KNHC 150005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 2N40W EQUATOR AT 48W INTO NE BRAZIL AT 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER BRAZIL FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN 48W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N80W 20N90W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 19N95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY W OF 90W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. SURFACE WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE NELY 10-20 KT. TEMPERATURES N OF THE FRONT REMAIN WARM AND PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 60-75 F. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT... THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE N TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT AND CONVECTION IN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 76W FROM PANAMA TO CANCUN MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SWLY TO WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL IN 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W AND EXTENDS SW TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES E. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WEAKENING 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N78W. A 1014 MB LOW IS ALSO SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N60W DRIFTING NE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 15N-23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N31W PRODUCING ELY SURFACE FLOW FROM W AFRICA TO 50W BETWEEN 10W-25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N45W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 30N32W. IN THE TROPICS...A JET STREAM...WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS SE OF THE E ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 8N40W TO TO BEYOND 15N15W OVER W AFRICA. $$ FORMOSA