000 AXNT20 KNHC 141802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 3N25W 3N36W EQUATOR AT 48W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 31W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 15Z...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WRN END OF THE FRONT ATTACHES ITSELF TO A DEVELOPING 1014MB SFC LOW LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W...WHILE A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE SFC LOW TO SRN TX. WITH A MODERATELY STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA MADRE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS BANKED THE ERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...POSSIBLY WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT...IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS JUST NE OF THE SFC LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WITH SEVERAL CENTERS OVER THE SE U.S. ALONG THE NWRN GULF COAST/NERN MEXICO. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING SFC RIDGE AND RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY W OF 90W. OTHERWISE...AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SWLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SURFACE LOW OVER THE W CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD CUT ACRS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THU AND DRAG A NEWLY-ENERGIZED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF WATERS FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN GENERAL...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS THAT THESE CLOUDS AGREE WELL WITH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG 81W. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO ENTER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... PRODUCING POCKETS OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS. EARLY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE MOSTLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONGER IN THE TYPICAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING SHIFTING AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 20-25 KT FROM THE N/NE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN. TO THE EAST...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS ADVECTING MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN AT UPPER-LEVELS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WISPING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N73W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PRESSES SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N60W IS DRIFTING SLOWLY N/NNE INTO THE OPEN CNTRL ATLANTIC. VIS SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOW ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME ABSORBED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ELSEWHERE...A SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTH TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 57W/58W FROM 15N TO 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF 19N BETWEEN 43W-52W. OTHERWISE...AN EWD-MOVING SFC RIDGE...ANCHORED ON A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 34N33W...DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE ARE AFFECTING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE NWRN COAST OF AFRICA TO 45W. FINALLY...A JET STREAM BRANCH...WITH CORE WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS SE OF AN AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 22N34W TO 15N40W. $$ GR/TK