000 AXNT20 KNHC 141150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 8N EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER ALONG 111W NEAR 31N/32N. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N86W INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA...AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE COAST JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. THIS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STILL IS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE U.S.A. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...GOING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... CROSSING MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N EAST OF 90W...AND SOUTHWEST OF 28N97W 25N93W 23N91W 19N93W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR EASTERN CUBA. THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THE SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW APPEARS TO BE RELAXED GIVEN THE COMPARATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WEAKENING...AND THEN RETREATING NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN A SEPARATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTAL PATTERN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND APPROACHING HONDURAS... FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W...SOUTH OF 18N WEST OF 78W APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA...AND IN PATCHES OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 57W/59W FROM 17N TO 23N. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...STILL NOT DIRECTLY REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N BETWEEN 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STILL IS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE U.S.A. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GOES FROM 31N58W TO 27N57W TO 21N52W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 57W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST EAST OF THE WATER VAPOR LEVEL TROUGH AND JUST WEST OF THE 22N30W 12N36W TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N48W 23N46W 29N49W 35N51W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 50W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHES PORTUGAL/SPAIN AND NORTHWESTERN AFRICA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT RUNS FROM SPAIN TO THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 31N23W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...GOING FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N30W TO 12N36W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N BEYOND 32N EAST OF 52W. $$ MT