000 AXNT20 KNHC 140604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 25W...AND SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 33W AND 44W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N BETWEEN 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STILL IS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE U.S.A. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...GOING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... CROSSING MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR EASTERN CUBA. THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THE SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW APPEARS TO BE RELAXED GIVEN THE COMPARATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... WEAKENING...AND THEN RETREATING NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN A SEPARATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTAL PATTERN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 82W...FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W...SOUTH OF 15N EAST OF 65W...SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W...AND SOUTH OF 18N WEST OF 84W MOVING INTO HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 56W/58W FROM 17N TO 23N. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...STILL NOT DIRECTLY REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO FLORIDA ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N BETWEEN 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STILL IS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE U.S.A. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GOES FROM 31N58W TO 27N57W TO 21N52W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST EAST OF THE WATER VAPOR LEVEL TROUGH AND JUST WEST OF THE 22N30W 12N36W TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N46W 26N49W 33N52W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 50W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHES PORTUGAL/SPAIN AND NORTHWESTERN AFRICA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT RUNS FROM SPAIN TO THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 31N23W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...GOING FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N30W TO 12N36W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N BEYOND 32N EAST OF 52W. $$ MT