000 AXNT20 KNHC 132336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N23W 4N39W 2N47W EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO S MEXICO ALONG 28N83W 23N90W 18N94W AT 21Z. METAR AND BUOY OBS SUGGEST A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE SITUATED IN THE VICINITY OF 27N84W...ANALYZED 1013 MB. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. THE ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE SPREAD OUT OVER FLORIDA AND THE ATLC WATERS WHERE THE UPPER PATTERN IS MORE DIFFLUENT. LOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 90W DUE TO THE TYPICAL NLY FLOW FUNNELING EFFECT. ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AS MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS ADVECT IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY TOMORROW ALLOWING THE COOLER CONDITIONS TO PENETRATE FARTHER SOUTH. THEREAFTER...SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE DIPS OVER THE W CARIB WHILE A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS. WIDESPREAD ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE IS EMBEDDED IN THESE FEATURES SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOUDINESS OR CONVECTION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ELY TRADE WINDS ARE MOSTLY MODERATE...EXCEPT STRONG IN THE TYPICAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS NOTED IN A RECENT ASCAT PASS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS ARE BEING STEERED BY THE TRADES... CURRENTLY MOST ORGANIZED BETWEEN 66W-76W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NW CORNER TOMORROW SHIFTING WINDS TO THE N/NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA NAMELY N OF 28N W OF 75W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES...WHICH ARE PART OF A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR THE NORTHEAST STATES LATER TONIGHT AND MON. A SLOWLY FILLING LOW PRES SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NWD DRIFT CENTERED NEAR 29N60W. THE MIN PRES WAS LOWERED TO 1010 MB BASED ON EARLIER SHIP REPORTS. A SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF 27.5N58W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER AFOREMENTIONED WINTER STORM. DENSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF 22N BETWEEN 47W-52W IN AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE. THE E ATLC REMAINS BENEATH THE TAIL END OF AN AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N38W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SW TO WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TROPICAL BELT WHICH ARE TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS S OF 17N E OF 35W. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS EMBEDDED RIPPLES OR BANDED FEATURES TO THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTIVE OF TURBULENCE. $$ CANGIALOSI