000 AXNT20 KNHC 131748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N20W 4N30W 2N40W ALONG THE EQUATOR W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF N OF 24N WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS IN TRANSITION EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW JUST OFF THE NW FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N84W CONTINUING TO A SECOND 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N88W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N92W WEAKENING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N88W ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. THE LOWS ARE MOVING NE FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO COLD WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE W ATLC. JETSTREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED FROM 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE GULF ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN ON MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N80W. THIS FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US/GULF OF MEXICO AND IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC. THIS FRONT IS TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD FRONT AS THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE NE OFF THE E US COAST. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ALONG 70W BEYOND 32N PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N79W TO 30N76W. A 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 23N61W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE E FROM 26N-29W BETWEEN 57W-59W. THIS SURFACE LOW WAS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N55W SSE TO 18N47W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 29N70W AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR W ATLC. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT N OF THE REGION. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N44W NNW TO BEYOND 32N50W AND IS PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N FROM 30W-52W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE