000 AXNT20 KNHC 120535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 2N35W 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA THROUGH 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST NORTH OF CUBA. LIGHT SWLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT N TO NE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS W OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WSWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY FRONT IN ADDITION TO PROVIDING VERY LITTLE SUPPORT TO THE FRONT ITSELF. A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF S OF 26N/27N AND WAS CAPPED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS OF 60-75 KT NOTED. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF N OF WIND MAX. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWER.ACTIVITY IN THE INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NE GULF ON SUN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS WAS NOTED OVER THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W AND EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CONFLUENT WSWLY FLOW IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AND WAS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH WAS MOST PRONOUNCED EAST OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND PROLONG THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N59W. THE LOW WAS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM 32N58W S TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 19N62W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58/59W FROM 10N TO 18N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS TROUGH. FURTHER EAST 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N33W AND DOMINATES THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ AND E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 62W WITH AXIS ALONG 68W/69W. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOTED ABOVE NEAR 27N59W IS STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGS SWD TO 20N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 46W-54W...AND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE STACKED UPPER/SURFACE LOW. AN UPPER RIDGE IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 30W-50W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 30W WITH A TROPICAL WIND MAX NOTED ALONG 15N WHICH WAS CAPPING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. $$ COBB