000 AXNT20 KNHC 111801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL IVORY COAST TO 4N10W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL 2S50W NEAR THE ILHA DE MARAJO. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 31W AND 32W... WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N47W...4N50W...AND 2N51W IN COASTAL BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM BRAZIL TO FRENCH GUIANA FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 32W AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT IS BEING STRETCHED ALONG ITS NORTHERN PART...OVER THE EASTERN/ SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE PART OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEING SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN PART THAT IS OVER LAND. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH A HINT OF CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING. THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS MARKING THE COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BE FOLLOWED BY A COMPARATIVELY MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 12N TO 19N JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ON THE MAP BETWEEN 55W AND 60W SINCE 09/1800 UTC. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH THIS TROUGH MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IF AND WHEN THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N58W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...ACROSS THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...INTO VENEZUELA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N58W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WRAPPED AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N56W 22N60W 21N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W...AND CURVING AROUND THE CENTER ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CENTER FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N24W TO 26N27W...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE AND NEARBY CLOUDS/SHOWERS. $$ MT