000
AXNT20 KNHC 111122
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N12W 2N27W 2N38W S OF THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-35W AND N 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO 4N BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO 4N BETWEEN 
32W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N 
BETWEEN 11W-28W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF OF LINE FROM 5N45W TO THE 
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION S INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY EASTWARD ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS SE 
LOUISIANA E OF NEW ORLEANS ALONG 26N93W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO 
WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM 
OF A LINE FROM 24N93W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR 
PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR W OF THE FRONT FROM 
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA IN LOUISIANA THROUGH TO JUST N OF TAMPICO 
MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF WITH 
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A WEAK 
SURFACE HIGH IS BEGINNING TO BUILD W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 
1017 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT ARE 
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE 
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING ZONAL WESTERLY 
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A REMNANT AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN WITHIN 
75 NM OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW ALONG 16N71W ACROSS 
JAMAICA TOP THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 20N85W. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW 
REMAINS JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS GENERATING AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 16N FROM 61W-65W. OTHERWISE THE AREA 
REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL 
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N75W COVERING THE AREA W OF 
67W. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N58W 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 50W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 32N53W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 26N58W TO 20N62W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO THE 
E OF THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 46W-60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS 
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 19N56W TO 13N57W. 
MODERATE/STRONG UPPER WESTERLY FLOW IS SHEARING ANY CONVECTION 
THAT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. NEAR ZONAL 
WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W. HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC 
ANCHORED N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE 
LOW/SURFACE TROUGH. 

$$
WALLACE