000
AXNT20 KNHC 110524
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 2N31W 2N41W S OF THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 13W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA S INTO THE W GULF 
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY EASTWARD 
ENTERING THE GULF THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF 
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO WITH HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE 
FROM 25N95W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/ 
MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SKIES ARE CLEARING JUST AS RAPIDLY W OF THE 
FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA COASTS. AN UPPER RIDGE 
COVERS THE E GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E CUBA JUST E OF 
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
RETREAT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS STRONG FRONT FROM THE W ATLC TO 
THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS 
ELSEWHERE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE 
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING ZONAL WESTERLY 
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS COVER 
THE N CARIBBEAN E OF 80W USHERING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO OVER THE GREATER 
ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS JUST W 
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
S OF 16N FROM 60W-65W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS RATHER 
TRANQUIL THIS MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM E CUBA 
JUST E OF FLORIDA TO ALONG THE E US COAST COVERING THE AREA W OF 
68W. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N57W 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 50W-68W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 26N58W S TO 20N59W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF THE 
UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
N OF 22N BETWEEN 46W-59W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W 
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 58W FROM 13N-18N. MODERATE/STRONG UPPER 
WESTERLY FLOW IS SHEARING ANY CONVECTION THAT COULD BE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W. HIGH PRESSURE 
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE REGION WITH A 
WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH. 

$$
WALLACE