000
AXNT20 KNHC 110003
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 4N20W 2S50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 
12W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N92W 
24N98W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 
27N.  SWLY SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A FAIRLY 
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 
AND TEXAS MOVING E. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED COLD FRONT.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
AXIS ALONG 85W.  A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW 
GULF W OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE 
FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM JACKSONVILLE FL TO TAMPICO 
MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE...AND OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... 
AND CUBA.  MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 
E OF 65W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN.  A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  
EXPECT...A SURFACE TROUGH TO PROLONG THE SHOWERS OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED 
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N61W.  A 1011 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N57W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
S TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 18N62W.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS E 
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N56W 12N58W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS TROUGH.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME 
OF CLOUD FREE AIR LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY STABLE AIR...AS 
NOTED IN THE CIMSS SAL PRODUCT...MOVING W THRU THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS TO ABOUT 30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 75W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED NEAR 28N56W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE LOW 
CENTER PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-32N 
BETWEEN 47W-52W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 50W.  

$$
FORMOSA