000 AXNT20 KNHC 100530 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N3W 3N16W 4N42W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-45W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 36W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC REMAINING OVER THE NE GULF AS THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF BACKING NW AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SE NEAR NEW ORLEANS ALONG 27N95W TO 22N96W. A STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS NOW MOVING OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BRINGING THE NEXT MAJOR FRONT FOR THE GULF LATER TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE PRECEDES THIS NEXT FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE W GULF FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE TEXAS COAST. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF AND INTO THE SW ATLC. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS FLORIDA ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC NEAR 20N62W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO S HAITI NEAR 18N73W. AN AREA OF BROKEN/ OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 16N E OF 65W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US TO S FLORIDA WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER THE US AND OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 66W WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N56W COVERING THE AREA N OF 19N BETWEEN 50W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N52W SW TO 20N57W AND A SOUTHERN EXTENSION FROM 18N58W TO 10N59W GIVING THE AREA BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 16N E OF 56W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 47W-58W. WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS. $$ WALLACE