000
AXNT20 KNHC 090523
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N1W 1N7W 3N15W 3N36W S OF THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 7W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-43W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY AND THE NW GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING 
THE GULF NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER EXTENDING S TO CORPUS 
CHRISTI TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE FRONT W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED BECOMING 
STATIONARY LATER TODAY AND MOVING BACK N AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES 
INTO THE GULF ON LATE THU. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN COVERING THE S AND NE GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE FAR SE US AND THE E 
GULF. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS W OF THE FRONT WHILE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS WEAKER SOUTH AND EASTERLY FLOW. 
SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N89W TO THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND PANAMA CITY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
AREA. LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE STRONG 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT REMAINS OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A 
RELATIVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING 
IN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. 
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THE AREA REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT WITH 
SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 16N-18N 
BETWEEN 70W-80W INCLUDING S HISPANIOLA AND ALL OF JAMAICA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 
75W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N 
FROM 56W-75W AND COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 52W-61W. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER TROUGH IS 
OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N46W TO 25N43W AND IS 
GENERATING A SECOND AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY FROM 25N-30N 
BETWEEN 40W-47W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC AND THE E GULF 
OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1030 MB HIGHS N OF THE REGION. 

$$
WALLACE