000 AXNT20 KNHC 082357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N1W 2N10W 3N20W 2N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 1W-11W...AND FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 11W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 22W-30W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT SELY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WHERE A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS W OF 94W. THE COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY JUST INLAND FROM 31N94W TO 27N99W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE...AND OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 70W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. WLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N45W 26N48W 21N49W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 40W-44W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N59W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 55W-57W. A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-45W. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA