000 AXNT20 KNHC 081129 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N3W 2N16W 2N33W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W TO 1S52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 17W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 35W-43W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N E OF 17W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE TODAY INTO WED MORNING. HOWEVER...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF RESULTING IN MODERATE/ STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. THIS IS BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NW GULF COAST FROM TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER THROUGH LOUISIANA. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE FAR E GULF AND PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE STRONG BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN...THE AREA REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 55W-70W. A SMALL 1018 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N67W AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO 27N68W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 55W-59W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N47W TO 22N45W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N42W TO 21N47W AND IS GENERATING A SECOND AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 39W-47W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 35N58W WITH A WEAKNESSES IN THE REGION OF THE ABOVE SURFACE FEATURES. $$ WALLACE