000 AXNT20 KNHC 080518 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N22W 2N33W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO 2S45W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 25W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 2.5N FROM 16W-24W AND WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N E OF 7W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE TUE INTO WED MORNING. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF RESULTING IN MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. THIS IS BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE FAR E GULF AND PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE STRONG BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER HAITI IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST AND ARE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 72W-80W. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N THE AREA REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS DOTTING THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 68W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 55W-68W AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 66W FROM 20N-27N. THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 54W-62W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N48W TO 22N45W GENERATING A SECOND AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 40W-48W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 35N54W WITH A WEAKNESSES IN THE REGION OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE