000 AXNT20 KNHC 071120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N17W 3N30W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W TO 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 26W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 15W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE NE GULF WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE ENTIRE S GULF. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GULF TUE INTO WED. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SE TO E WINDS. THIS IS BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER LOUISIANA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. LOW SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BANKING CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 11N W OF 81W. SIMILARLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE BANKING CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER DRY THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DOTTING THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 72W WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM 60W-72W. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N67W WITH THE 1025 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N72W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 64W-70W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 24N W OF 56W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N50W TO 22N55W WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N30W TO 20N30W AND A UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE THESE UPPER TROUGHS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 38W-52W AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKENING REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N34W THROUGH A WEAK 1020 MB LOW NEAR 23N43W TO 19N61W AND NO ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES. $$ WALLACE