000 AXNT20 KNHC 070548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N23W 2N33W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 17W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 26W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE NE GULF WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE ENTIRE S GULF. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GULF TUE INTO WED. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SE TO E WINDS. THIS IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER LOUISIANA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SE SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. LOW SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DOTTING THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER HIGH OVER GEORGIA EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 77W WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 25N FROM 63W-77W. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N69W WITH THE 1025 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N71W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 66W-71W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 60W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N53W TO 21N58W WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO 20N31W AND A UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE THESE UPPER TROUGHS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 42W-54W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N35W ALONG 28N43W TO 21N57W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG 41W FROM 21N-27N WITH A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 27N41W AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES. $$ WALLACE