000 AXNT20 KNHC 060539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N25W 3N36W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM S OF THE AXIS EAST OF 16W AND WITHIN 60 N OF AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEPARTING 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF BERMUDA EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT ELY TO SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 75W. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS OVER THE SE U.S. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER HONDURAS AND JUST TO THE EAST OF BELIZE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0000 UTC SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE BASIN...REACHING 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. FURTHER EAST...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE SEEN OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 19N AND EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SPRAWLING 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST N OF BERMUDAS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N41W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO JUST N THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A VAST AREA OF BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT WITH NE SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N40W TO 20N38W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ON THE 00Z SURFACE MAP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 24N40W BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND CLOUD MOTIONS. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 34N23W MOVING EWD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND THE WEST ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING HISPANIOLA. FURTHER EAST...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 42W-62W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC WITH CENTERS NEAR 26N34W AND 21N34W. A PLUME OF BROKEN JET CIRRUS CLOUDS IS E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 12N THROUGH 32N BETWEEN 25W-33W. THE FLOW IN THIS REGION WAS VERY DIFLUENT WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ GR