000 AXNT20 KNHC 060005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N30W 3N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND BETWEEN 25W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEPARTING 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N81W PRODUCING 15 TO LOCALLY KT ELY TO SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...A MARKED DEPARTURE FROM THE RECENT COLD SPELL. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF S OF 25N. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER HONDURAS AND JUST TO THE EAST OF BELIZE. FURTHER EAST...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 19N AND EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SPRAWLING 1034 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N42W 24N50W 21N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. A VAST AREA OF BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT WITH NE SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N40W TO 20N38W...HOWEVER A 2030 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW IS NOW EVIDENT ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 24N40W. THIS FEATURE WILL BE INCLUDED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 34N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CAROLINAS TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE FAR WEST ATLANTIC AND IS ON THE HEELS OF A TROUGH IS ALONG 32N65W THROUGH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 26N69W TO A BASE NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FURTHER EAST... A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 42W-65W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC WITH CENTERS NEAR 25N36W AND 22N38W. A PLUME OF BROKEN JET CIRRUS CLOUDS IS E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 12N THROUGH 32N BETWEEN 25W-33W. THE FLOW IN THIS REGION WAS VERY DIFLUENT WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N17W. $$ COBB