000
AXNT20 KNHC 051719
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 
25W-30W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N82W 
PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY TO SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE U.S. GULF COASTLINE RANGE FROM 
THE MID 50'S TO THE MID 60'S AND CONTINUE TO WARM.  CLUSTERS OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN HOWEVER 
OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
86W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALOFT OVER THE SRN GULF S OF 25N.  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N AND 
E OF 95W.  EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N67W.  A COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N42W 25N50W 21N60W.  
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SW TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W.  
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF FRONTS WITH NELY 
WINDS 15-25 KT.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 27N40W TO 20N40W.  A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N38W.  A PLUME OF 
BROKEN JET CIRRUS CLOUDS IS E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 13N-32N 
BETWEEN 25W-33W.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

$$
FORMOSA