000
AXNT20 KNHC 051124
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N42W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 20W-36W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST 
OF SW AFRICA E OF 4W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE W AND 
CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH ALONG THE W COAST OF 
MEXICO JUST NW OF ACAPULCO ENTERING THE GULF NEAR TUXPAN TO OVER 
THE SE US NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. THIS IS BRINGING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
BUT STILL NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT IN THE GULF. THE DEEP LAYERED 
TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL 
E OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXTENDING INTO THE THE W ATLC AND 
CARIBBEAN FROM A 1035 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COAST. 
THIS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RETURN FLOW OVER THE 
W/CENTRAL GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. MODERATE/ 
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE FAR E GULF E OF 87W. THE NEXT 
MAJOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE TO THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-84W. PATCHES OF 
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 
CARIBBEAN W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CREATING A 
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR 
16N86W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS 
TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL. STRONG NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE 
THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF THE FRONT 
MANLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 44W WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 
26N50W SLOWING ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO 20N62W WHERE IT BECOMES 
NEAR STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH PUERTO RICO/MONA 
PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 
24N. A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP 
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 
24N75W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W 
OF THE FRONT TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND INLAND OVER 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A 
WEAKENING JETSTREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED FROM 80 TO 95 KT 
EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W ALONG 29N60W TO 
31N50W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E US COVERS THE 
W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC 
INTO THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N39W EXTENDING N BEYOND 32N WITH 
A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 20N38W TO 27N41W. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E 
EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N25W. THIS 
CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC 
MAINLY BETWEEN 25W-32W WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM 
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 
37W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N23W. 

$$
WALLACE