000
AXNT20 KNHC 042344
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 3N40W EQ49W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE 
AXIS AND WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-32W. A CLUSTER 
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 37W-38W. A LARGE 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN THE COAST OF BRAZIL AND 
THE ITCZ FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 46W-50W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH 
CAROLINA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT ELY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GULF. ALOFT...FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH 
OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE 
NW GULF. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE 
BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 18N70W AND CONTINUES ALONG 17N75W 16N80W 
TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. MODERATE CONVECTION WITH 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 76W-82W. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE MOVING 
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. N OF THE FRONT WINDS 
ARE 20-30 KT FROM THE NE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 
THE FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE N CARIBBEAN IS 
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS N OF 15N. SWLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING DRY/STABLE 
CONDITIONS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SFC 
HIGH OVER S CAROLINA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS 
OVER THE SW N ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 69W-77W. FARTHER E...A COLD 
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N50W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N55W 
22N60W AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 
LINE OF MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 90 NM AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT N OF 21N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FLOW AROUND THE 
RIDGE W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SFC RIDGE AROUND A 1030 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N29W COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N40W CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL 
MOISTURE N OVER THE E ATLC. DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW 
AND AN UPPER RIDGE SOUTH OF 24N IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG 
30W FROM 14N-31N. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC DRAWING 
UPPER MOISTURE/ HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 
AFRICA.


$$
WADDINGTON