000
AXNT20 KNHC 041758
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 3N40W EQ48W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 20W-38W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1042 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N79W 
PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.    
TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATING AFTER THE COLD AIRMASS BLAST.  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINS HOWEVER 
OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 84W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 85W.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALOFT OVER THE SRN GULF S OF 25N.  EXPECT 
CONTINUED SURFACE WARMING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 
HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ALONG 20N65W 18N70W 18N77W 12N84W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N 
BETWEEN 76W-79W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT.  WINDS N OF 
THE FRONT ARE 20-30 KT FROM THE NE.  SIMILAR WINDS ARE OVER THE 
N CARIBBEAN N OF 14N DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN 
SEA.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE DUE TO ON SHORE FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N52W 23N60W 20N65W.  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF FRONT 
WITH NLY WINDS 20-30 KT.  A GALE AREA IS 200 NM N OF HISPANIOLA 
AND E CUBA.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
33N30W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH 
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N40W.  A PLUME OF 
BROKEN JET CIRRUS CLOUDS IS E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 13N-23N 
BETWEEN 15W-33W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC AND REACH 46W IN 24 HOURS.  

$$
WALLACE