000
AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N10W 3N15W 2N20W 1N26W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 37W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S/4S ALONG 45W.
A TROUGH IS JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ ALONG 7N26W 4N28W 1N29W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 36W.
OTHER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW REPLACES THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT FOR THE BEGINNING OF 2008. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1040 MB REMAINS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF 
THE AREA. 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI TO TENNESSEE AND WEST VIRGINIA. THE COLD FRONT NOW 
IS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. STORM-FORCE SURFACE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
TOWARD ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA. COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO JAMAICA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS HAVE MOVED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N79W 
13N81W TO 10N84W IN NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. A SURFACE TROUGH 
RUNS FROM 9N IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO 17N ALONG 68W/70W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 
71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF 
THE AREA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
IN BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
61W AND 65W IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT THE BEGINNING OF 2008 COLD 
FRONT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED NOW TO A LINE THROUGH 
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N58W TO 30N60W 24N64W AND BEYOND 20N70W TO THE NORTHERN BORDER
OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N37W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW.
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 330 NM WEST OF
THE AZORES. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 64W...
AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 20N37W 
CENTER TO 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 
AFRICA AND THE 20N37W CYCLONIC CENTER.

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MT