000
AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N30W EQ40W 2S45W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 
11W-28W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD AIRMASS IS GRIPPING THE REGION TODAY WITH OVERCAST COLD 
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 
29N AND W OF 84W.  WINDS ARE 20-30 KT FROM THE NE OVER THE E 
GULF E OF 87W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT WINDS 
FROM THE NE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE U.S. COASTLINE FROM S 
FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS RANGE FROM THE MID 30'S TO THE MID 
50'S.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  
EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO SWING TO THE E AND SE DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SLOWING IN FORWARD 
SPEED.  IT EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N71W 16N80W 
12N84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
HONDURAS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 82W-83W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD 
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE 
FRONT.  WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE 20-30 KT FROM THE NE.  SIMILAR 
WINDS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  WINDS ARE ELY 10-15 
KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 
13N-17N BETWEEN 66W-73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME 
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE.  THE BEST 
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N 
BETWEEN 75W-88W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.       

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 20N70W.  BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH 
NLY WINDS 20-30 KT.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N32W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W.  A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
20N37W.  A PLUME OF BROKEN JET CIRRUS CLOUDS IS E OF THE UPPER 
LOW FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 10W-35W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE 
E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND REACH 50W IN 24 HOURS.    

$$
FORMOSA