000 AXNT20 KNHC 031134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N10W ALONG 5N23W 2N33W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S AND 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-26W AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 30W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS IS GRIPPING THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING ON THE S SIDE OF A VERY HEALTHY 1046 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 20'S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE N GULF COAST AND IN THE 30'S ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FLA...WHICH IS A RARE EVENT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW TEMPS AND BRISK NLY WINDS IS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20'S. GALE FORCE NLY WINDS CONTINUE S OF 25N E OF 90W CREATING DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 15 FT. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A DENSE LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 28N...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY COOL STABLE AIRMASS. SFC WINDS WILL RELAX FROM W TO E TODAY AND FRI AS THE STRONG HIGH SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO VEER ELY...GREATLY MODIFYING THE AIRMASS BRINGING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED BUT SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N76W 15N84W. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS CONFIRMED WINDS TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW IS PULLING DOWN QUITE CHILLY AIR FOR THE REGION AS READINGS ARE FALLING INTO THE 50'S F IN THE N PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE NLY GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. DENSE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDINESS/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DEEPER IN NATURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 81W-84W ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGING LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT...A SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 68W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT FROM 32N63W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W AND WELL SW INTO THE W CARIB. STRONG NWLY WINDS...JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA...ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT ADVECTING AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS. SEE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD DENSE LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT ATTEMPTED TO BE SUBTROPICAL SEVERAL DAYS AGO IS STILL APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT NOW AS A N-S OPEN TROUGH ALONG 53W/54W FROM 21N-30N WITH NO CONVECTION. THIS WEAK FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE W AND WILL MERGE WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE E AND CNTRL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N34W. A SW TO WLY JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT E AND WEAKEN ORIGINATING JUST E OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE NEAR 15N40W EXTENDING NE ALONG 23N30W 26N15W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET IS GENERATING ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITH 540 NM E/SE OF THE JET AXIS. $$ CANGIALOSI