000
AXNT20 KNHC 020547
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N24W 3N27W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD AIRMASS HAS NOW BUILT INTO THE ENTIRE AREA BEHIND A 
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC WATERS INTO THE 
EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
FRONT AND A 1054 MB HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS PRODUCING NLY GALE 
FORCE WINDS S OF 28N W OF 90W AS NOTED IN BUOY/SHIP DATA AND 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THIS STRONG FLOW AND NLY 
FETCH/SWELL IS CREATING DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 
BUILDING UPWARDS OF 20 FT ACROSS THE SW PORTION. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM W TO E ON THU AS THE STRONG HIGH 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE 
COLDEST OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF FLORIDA ON THU WITH GFS 
PROJECTING MINIMUMS IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND 
EVEN MID TO UPPER 30'S RIGHT HERE IN THE MIAMI AREA. MULTILAYER 
CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS COVER THE AREA S OF 25N W 
OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN ABOVE THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE AND ADVECTED NE BY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TYPICAL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIB 
TONIGHT UNDER A VERY SUBSIDENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST S OF 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N71W. THIS WIDESPREAD SINKING AIRMASS IS 
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND KEEPING STREAMS OF 
MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADES SHALLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS AN 
EXCEPTION TO THE TRANQUILITY IN THE FAR NW CORNER WHERE A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N83W 
19N88W. NLY WINDS ARE SHARPLY INCREASING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY 
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE OR SO. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 24-30 HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT THREATENED TO BECOME A NAMED 
SUBTROPICAL STORM DAYS AGO IS MOVING W ANALYZED 1012 MB NEAR 
22N45W...BUT APPEARS TO BE OPENING INTO A TROUGH. WHILE RECENT 
SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS THAT WINDS TO GALE FORCE 
ARE STILL OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE IT IS EXPECTED TO 
FALL BELOW CRITERIA VERY SHORTLY. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL PATCH OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 46W-47W. ANOTHER 
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC FROM 
32N72W TO W CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE FRONT. NW WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT 
EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. MUCH COLDER AIR IS 
USHERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONTAL ZONE AND ITS UPPER 
TROUGH WILL ABSORB THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY OTHER 
NOTABLE FEATURE IS A SW TO WLY UPPER JET ORIGINATING JUST E OF 
AN UPPER TROUGH BASE NEAR 13N46W AND EXTENDING NE ALONG 21N32W 
26N15W. ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 660 NM S/SE OF THE JET AXIS 
SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE/INSTABILITY. 

$$
CANGIALOSI