000
AXNT20 KNHC 020006
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W AT THE SIERRA LEONE COAST 
TO 5N20W TO 3N37W TO EQ48W AT THE NE BRAZIL COAST.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED UP TO 90 NMI NORTH OF 
THE AXIS AND UP TO 180 NMI SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM 13W TO 28W.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXIST WITH 90 NMI OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN 
FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO 
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 
COVER THE GULF WITH PEAK OBSERVED CURRENTLY OF 40 KT FROM AN 
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS IN THE WESTERN GULF.  MODERATE SCATTERED 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING 
DETECTION TO BE OCCURRING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE ALSO SEEN 
NEAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WINDS ARE OUT OF 
THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND UP TO 100 
KT ALONG THE US GULF COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE POLAR 
JET.  STRONG SURFACE NORTHERLIES WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH 
GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE YUCATAN STRAITS.  BY 
THURSDAY...ALL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF SHOULD SUBSIDE.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO AREAS OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING TODAY OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENT RIDGE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN.  SURFACE 
WINDS ARE EASTERLY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT WITH SOME 25 KT WINDS 
NORTH OF COLUMBIA.  AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...CONVECTION AND SHOWERS MAY 
OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  N TO NE WINDS IN 
THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN MAY REACH GALE FORCE ON WEDNESDAY.  
THESE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY BUT BRISK WINDS OF 25 TO 
30 KT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE 
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA 
NORTHEASTWARD TO 30N75W.  SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE 
NORTHWESTERLY UP TO 20 KT AND WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ARE UP TO 25 KT OUT OF THE SW.  A SECOND 
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SURFACE LOW OF 1012 MB NEAR 23N42W 
WHICH HAS GALES IN ITS NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  GALES IN THIS LOW 
SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  
THE REMAINDER OF THE N ATLANTIC REGION IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE 
RIDGING THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS ALONG 30N.  THE COLD FRONT WILL 
QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND REACH ABOUT 65W AT 
30N WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 58W THURSDAY NIGHT.  VERY STRONG COLD 
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE 540 
THICKNESS LINE PARALLELING 30N FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  
HOWEVER...NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS 
FRONT IN OUR ATLANTIC REGION.

$$
LANDSEA