000
AXNT20 KNHC 011815
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N30W 2N40W EQ47W 1S50W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 14W-30W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 24N90W 
22N98W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF FT 
MYERS FL FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 82W-84W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 91W-96W.  COLD NLY 
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 
50'S ALONG THE COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BROWNSVILLE 
TEXAS.  25-30 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W.  LIGHTER 
15-20 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT AND E OF 90W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NRN GULF 
OF MEXICO.  SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS THUS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE 
GULF.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N.  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 27N.  EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE TO S MEXICO IN 24 HOURS.  
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SW GULF WITH 25-30 KT WINDS 
ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30'S OVER PORTIONS 
OF INLAND S FLORIDA WED MORNING.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
ESPECIALLY S OF 17N.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE SRN COAST 
OF HISPANIOLA...AND OVER INLAND NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
AXIS ALONG 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA E OF 82W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO 
BELIZE ALONG 22N80W 19N88W IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.  
GALE FORCE NLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 30N77W 28N80W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W.  A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N40W.  GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.  THIS GALE EVENT 
IS FORECAST TO COME TO AN END IN ABOUT 18 HOURS AS THE LOW 
CONTINUES TO FILL.  NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED 
WSW MOTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 
60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
ALONG 30N25W 16N55W.  AN UPPER JET...WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 120 
KT...ORIGINATES NEAR 10N50W AND EXTENDS NE THROUGH 20N30W 
23N15W. WIDESPREAD DENSE CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE JET.  

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FORMOSA