000
AXNT20 KNHC 010009
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST COAST NEAR 8N12W TO 
3N30W TO 2N41W TO EQ46W AT THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 21 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N83W NORTH OF TAMPA SW TO 24N93W.  
THE PORTION WEST OF 88W IS DISSIPATING.  LITTLE TO NO DEEP 
CONVECTION EXIST ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.  WINDS ARE 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR ALL OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF 
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS EAST WINDS AROUND 10 
KT.  AT UPPER LEVELS...WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 
30 KT IN THE SW GULF TO 80 KT IN THE NE GULF ALONG THE SOUTH 
SIDE OF THE POLAR JET.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO 
THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF BY LATE ON TUESDAY.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
ANTICIPATED IN THE WESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE 
SUBSIDING TO WEAKER NORTHEASTERLIES ON THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO LARGE-SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN DUE TO A SUBSIDENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER 
HISPANIOLA.  EASTERLY WINDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN 
PEAKING AT ABOUT 25 KT NORTH OF COLUMBIA.  THE AFOREMENTIONED 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING AND BRISK N TO NE WIND WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN.  HOWEVER...AT THIS 
POINT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT PROJECTED DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE 1008 MB CYCLONE THAT ATTEMPTED TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM 
IS CENTERED NEAR 26N37W.  WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY STILL 
WERE IN PLACE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS INDICATED BY THE 
2058 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...THE SYSTEM IS FILLING AND WINDS ARE 
LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TOMORROW.  THE CYCLONE 
SHOULD MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A 
REMNANT LOW.  THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY 
SURFACE RIDGING...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY IN THE 
EXTREME W ATLANTIC.  THIS COLD FRONT ATTACHES TO THE WEAK 
STATIONARY FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF.  THE FRONT IS NOT 
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ANY LONGER.  NUMEROUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER CLOUDINESS EXIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK 
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING FROM SOUTH AMERICA 
TO THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AFRICA.  THE CURRENT WEAK COLD FRONT 
IN THE W ATLANTIC SHOULD PULL NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE.  THE 
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE EXTREME W 
ATLANTIC TOMORROW AFTERNOON BRINGING BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY.  AT THIS POINT...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN 
OUR REGION OF THE ATLANTIC FROM THIS FRONT.

$$
CWL