000 AXNT20 KNHC 251158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST TO 3N20W 3N30W 4N43W CURVING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST OF TEXAS WITH NO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOUISIANA TROUGH. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND TO WESTERN CUBA HAS VIRTUALLY NO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND APPEARS TO BE IN A SITUATION OF BEING PUSHED WESTWARD ON TOP OF FLORIDA AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-CUBA/THE BAHAMAS/AND BEYOND BERMUDA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ON TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 18N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS. THE TROUGH AND FRONT COMBINATION MAY BRING RAIN TO PARTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND BERMUDA. THIS RIDGE ENHANCES DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES IN COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA AND SPREADS AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CURVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPERIMPOSES ITSELF ON TOP OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EAST OF 64W. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 18N51W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE ON TOP OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY ALONG THE PANAMA COAST...COVERING A SMALL PART OF EASTERN COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. THE SAME DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24 HOURS AGO REMAINS AT THIS TIME. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W TO 25N48W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N50W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 23N50W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 16N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N52W 25N40W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N40W BEYOND 32N37W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 14N60W 14N50W 20N34W BEYOND 19N10W FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO AFRICA. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH HAS BEEN DIGGING IN THE DIRECTION OF 14N60W-14N50W AND THAT IS WHY THE FLOW HAS BEEN PUSHED COMPARATIVELY SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE WESTERLY-TO- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS 18N A FEW DAYS AGO BEFORE THE TROUGH STARTED TO DIG IN THAT AREA. $$ MT