000 AXNT20 KNHC 232337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N24W 5N40W 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N83W 24N87W 18N94W...AT 21Z. DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA ARE DEPICTING JUST ABOUT NO ACTIVITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY SO ONLY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE N OF 27N AND WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT S OF THERE...MOST DENSE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE GREATEST WIND FUNNELING EXISTS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED IN THE SW GULF WITH BUOY AND SCAT DATA SUPPORTING NLY 20-30 KT WINDS AT THE MOMENT. CURRENT TEMP REPORTS ARE IN THE 60'S F JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50'S ACROSS THE N GULF COAST. WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MID AND UPPER 70'S ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING AND SLOWING OF THE FRONT...STALLING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF TOMORROW AT THIS TIME AS THE BOUNDARY LOSES UPPER SUPPORT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SITUATED ABOVE THE ENTIRE REGION ENHANCING DRY AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY N OF 17N WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS CONFLUENT BETWEEN TROUGHS NW AND NE OF THE REGION. THIS STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PROVIDING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. THE ONLY AREA OF ORGANIZED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS IN THE SW CARIB NEAR THE COAST OF PANAMA...S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W-82W...WHERE PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. PATCHY DEBRIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE CONFINED S OF 14N. THE SFC PRES PATTERN IS RATHER WEAK DUE TO BROAD TROUGHING N OF THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED ELY TRADES TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE E OF 70W WITH SOME INCREASE AND BACKING OUT OF THE NE W OF 70W ...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES AREA IS SLIDING E IN THE ATLC...ANALYZED 1013 MB NEAR 27N60W. THIS LOW SITS ALONG A SFC TROUGH FROM 31N45W TO 24N73W. LOW CLOUD TURNING IS VERY APPARENT NEAR THE W EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND SFC DATA MAY SUGGEST A VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING THERE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW TO 22N67W. NEARLY ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIE TO THE E OF THE SFC CENTER...IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE...N OF 22N BETWEEN 46W-60W AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 56W-59W E OF A SLOW MOVING SMALL SCALE LOW-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE E TO NE WINDS N OF THE LOW/TROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW PRES TROUGH SHIFTING E AND FILLING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GALE EVENT TO COME TO AN END WITHIN 18 HOURS. STACKED HIGH PRES RIDGING HAS BUILT INTO THE FAR W ATLC...AHEAD OF THE GULF FRONT...PRODUCING QUIET CONDITIONS W OF 75W. MUCH OF THE BASIN E OF 45W REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING DUE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING...ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 37N17W...AND WIDESPREAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ONLY PATCHY MULTI-LAYER CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REGION. $$ CANGIALOSI