000 AXNT20 KNHC 221805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM CENTRAL COASTAL SIERRA LEONE TO 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 7N50W 9N60W 9N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 20W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A TROUGH CUTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER/TROUGH SUPPORT A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER MOST OF TEXAS. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO...FROM 22N107W TO THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND BEYOND. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS... CROSSING LONG ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA AND RUM CAY...CROSSING CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO WESTERN CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...WHERE IT JOINS THE DEVELOPING TEXAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 78W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 14N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CUTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N66W 13N68W 9N69W IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N70W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. REFER TO THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT BUOY 41048 NEAR 32N70W DURING THE LAST HOUR. THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE BAHAMAS IS CONNECTED TO THIS 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A FEW OTHER CYCLONIC SWIRLS IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ARE FROM THE FRONT AND 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N55W 18N57W 16N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N47W TO 24N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 32N38W 28N45W 23N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N41W 27N37W BEYOND 32N29W. $$ MT