000 AXNT20 KNHC 171118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N15W 3N34W 5N50W 4N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OFF THE SOUTH AMERICA FROM 10N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W-58W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC. MOSTLY OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 TO 120 KT IS CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1030 MB HIGHS OVER NE LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING IN LATE IN THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW S OF THE MONA PASSAGE COLOMBIA/PANAMA. MOSTLY DRY STABLE UPPER AIR REIGNS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY S OF 20N TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW/UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 73W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N70W ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN CUBA NEAR 22N79W CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 76W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 TO 130 KT IS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THEN NE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N74W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N75W TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 23N FROM 63W-71W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR E ATLC THROUGH 32N12W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH OFF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 26N20W ALONG A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N22W TO 19N22W. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS AND A WEAKENING JETSTREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N45W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING. $$ WALLACE