000 AXNT20 KNHC 170522 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 4N17W 5N30W 4N42W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 4N25W TO 3N27W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-9W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 11W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OFF THE SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W-55W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC. THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE GULF LEAVING BROKEN/ OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS. A JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE GULF WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 TO 120 KT CENTERED FROM S TEXAS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE NW ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING IN LATE IN THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL AGAIN TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER PUERTO RICO SW TO COLOMBIA. MOSTLY DRY STABLE UPPER AIR REIGNS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW/UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N73W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN CUBA NEAR 22N81W CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 24N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 24N FROM 60W-71W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR E ATLC THROUGH 32N14W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N24W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 19N35W. A MID LEVEL LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH NEAR 22N22W. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JETSTREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. $$ WALLACE