000 AXNT20 KNHC 150523 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N18W 6N32W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 17W-25W AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 31W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 50W-54W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE N GULF COAST EXTENDING ACROSS SE GEORGIA INTO THE GULF JUST E OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA S OF LOUISIANA COAST INTO E TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON AS A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR SO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REMNANTS OF OLGA ARE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH NNE THROUGH THE E YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N E OF 88W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS FLORIDA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF OLGA...A 1006 MB LOW...REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N86W EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH NNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE E YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N W OF 84W WITH A SMALL BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. AN UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO SW TO A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF VENEZUELA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS MAINLY DRY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N FROM 80W-84W AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE REMNANTS OF OLGA IN THE W CARIBBEAN CROSSES FLORIDA OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO VERO BEACH TO NEAR 29N79W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-32N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 31N76W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH DRY STABLE AIR. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N30W SW TO 25N40W. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 20N20W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 24N22W TO 22N27W BUT DUE TO THE DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JET STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDING ALONG 15N40W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THEN NE TO OVER WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA. OTHERWISE THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA FROM 40W-75W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 28N58W. $$ WALLACE