000 AXNT20 KNHC 141135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N25W 3N35W 1N46W EQUATOR51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-32W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MAINLY STATIONARY FROM THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N98W THEN NWD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE. DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY DETECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS OVER S FLA...THE KEYS AND THE STRAITS. THIS MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY TRIGGERED BY AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM WRN CUBA THRU LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLGA. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BENEATH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEXT FRONT ...EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY POTENT ONE...WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER EARLY SAT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NLY WINDS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WITH THIS FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... OLGA'S REMNANTS IS STILL SPINNING IN THE NW CARIB NEAR 19.5N84W...ANALYZED 1009 MB MOVING W 10-15 KT. BUOY 42056 HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE MINIMUM PRESSURE. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...DEEP CONVECTION IS JUST ABOUT ABSENT. FAIRLY DENSE CLOUD BANDED STRUCTURES ARE N OF THE CENTER JUST S OF THE SW PORTION OF CUBA. SHALLOWER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. A LOW-LEVEL ELY SURGE IS APPARENT ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES ALONG 79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST NEAR THE SURGE LINE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXISTS E OF THERE CARRIED BY STRONG ELY TRADES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN PORTIONS. STRONG ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE CARIB S OF 14N E OF 67W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLGA...ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF S/CENTRAL E FLORIDA...THE KEYS AND THE FLA STRAITS. THE MOST ACTIVE AREA IS IN THE ATLC WATERS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN SECTIONS ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE MID TO UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN. THE RIDGE GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA W OF ABOUT 55W-60W INCLUDING THE ERN GULF. MID AND UPPER TROUGHING...SUPPORTING BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...CONTROLS THE PATTERN E OF 55W-60W. THE LARGEST TROUGH AMPLIFIER IS A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED SW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 30N21W. A FAIRLY SWIFT W TO SWLY JET...WITH CORE WINDS IN THE 100-120 KT RANGE...ORIGINATES NEAR THE SE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND EXTENDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 13N58W 16N39W 29N14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IN THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 10N BETWEEN 53W-59W SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER JET. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS...POSSIBLY ENHANCED SOME BY THE DEEP LAYERED LOW. THE SFC PATTERN IS MAINLY CONTROLLED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N59W. RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING STRONG ELY TRADES S OF 25N W OF 40W. A VERY WEAK 1019 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N32W WITH A TROUGH HANGING SW TO 26N36W...PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. A 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 30N21W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. $$ CANGIALOSI