000 AXNT20 KNHC 140550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N22W 3N38W 1N46W EQUATOR49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 20W-25W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-30W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MAINLY STATIONARY FROM SRN MISSISSIPPI TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 21N98W THEN ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE. DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. MUCH MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP IS OVER SE FLA...THE KEYS AND THE STRAITS. THIS MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLGA WHICH IS STILL SPINNING IN THE NW CARIB. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BENEATH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEXT FRONT...EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY POTENT ONE...WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER EARLY SAT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NLY WINDS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WITH THIS FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... OLGA'S REMNANTS IS STILL SPINNING IN THE NW CARIB NEAR 19.5N83W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED DEEP CONVECTION IS JUST ABOUT ABSENT. FAIRLY DENSE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD BANDED STRUCTURES ARE N OF THE CENTER NEAR THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF CUBA. SHALLOWER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. A LOW-LEVEL ELY SURGE IS APPARENT ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES ALONG 78W OR SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST NEAR THE SURGE LINE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 77W-79W. ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXISTS E OF THERE CARRIED BY STRONG ELY TRADES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN PORTIONS. STRONG ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE CARIB S OF 13N E OF 67W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLGA...ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SE FLORIDA...THE KEYS AND THE FLA STRAITS. FOR DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN SECTIONS ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN. THE RIDGE GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA W OF ABOUT 60W INCLUDING THE ERN GULF. MID AND UPPER TROUGHING...SUPPORTING BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...CONTROLS THE PATTERN E OF 60W. THE LARGEST TROUGH AMPLIFIER IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A FAIRLY SWIFT W TO SWLY JET...WITH CORE WINDS IN THE 100-120 KT RANGE...ORIGINATES NEAR THE SE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND EXTENDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 16N39W 23N24W 29N14W. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS...POSSIBLY ENHANCED SOME BY A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST. THE SFC PATTERN IS MAINLY CONTROLLED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N62W. RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING STRONG ELY TRADES S OF 25N W OF 40W. A VERY WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N33W WITH A TROUGH HANGING SW TO 25N40W...PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. $$ CANGIALOSI