000 AXNT20 KNHC 080605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 6N11W 6N25W 4N30W 4N43W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 30W... AND OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING CALIFORNIA AND REACHING NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE EASILY WILL SWEEP ACROSS MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST. A BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MEXICO NOW..EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N91W TO 18N98W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 23N82W IN WESTERN CUBA BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 23N87W TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 70W. THE RIDGE IS ALONG 12N79W BEYOND 23N82W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W IS EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MAY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N52W-TO- NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO 26N73W TO 23N73W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 32N77W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N63W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N52W TO A 22N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N56W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 14N TO 28N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W IN THE SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW MAY BE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W ALSO ARE IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 26N32W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 23W AND 43W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE IVORY COAST TO 10N16W TO 23N22W. $$ MT