000
AXNT20 KNHC 072356
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W 4N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2S-2N 
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 
6N-7N BETWEEN 18W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BRAZIL FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 48W-51W.   

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 
KT SELY FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...WHILE A RIDGE IS OVER 
THE E GULF E OF 90W PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS.  A BAND OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 
FLORIDA.  EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PRODUCE WLY 
FLOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA N 
OF COSTA RICA.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER 
PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 70W.  UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND S OF 15N 
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...THE TRADEWINDS TO 
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN 
PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF 
FLORIDA ALONG 32N78W 28N79W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. 
ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N54W 
28N63W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 
28N50W 15N50W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 
45W-51W.  A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 38N22W.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 50W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N54W.  DIFFLUENCE E OF THE 
CENTER IS HELPING PRODUCE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC. 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N31W 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO IN THE 
E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N31W. 

$$
FORMOSA