000 AXNT20 KNHC 070530 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 5N11W 6N17W 4N27W 5N40W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE COAST OF SW AFRICA TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 7W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM JUST S OF THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 8W-17W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 18W-34W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A FRONT THROUGH THE W ATLC BECOMING STATIONARY BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO E TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. THIS FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH N AS A WARM FRONT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E US MOVES E INTO THE NW ATLC. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA OFF THE TEXAS COAST TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH SUN. MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W TO NEAR 29N74W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH. THE AIR IS SOMEWHAT DRY AND STABLE OVER THE REGION WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL N OF THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N67W TO OVER THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 67W-70W. OTHERWISE THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE AZORES IS INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 27N56W TO BEYOND 32N51W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 22N59W TO 28N54W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 24N57W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W CENTERED NEAR 24N25W MOVING WESTWARD WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 8W/9W TO NEAR 40W ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE TROPICS INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ WALLACE