000 AXNT20 KNHC 062341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU DEC 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 5N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 11W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 28W-37W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W...AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER TO E TEXAS NEAR 29N95W. THE FRONTS ARE DRY AND ARE FOUND PRIMARILY BY WIND SHIFTS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS S OF THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF PRODUCING SWLY WINDS. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO FLORIDA. EXPECT...THE FRONTS TO RETROGRADE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER W OF 75W...AND PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND S OF 15N PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE TRADEWINDS TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N64W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 26N74W 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SIMILAR SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 22N65W TO 18N68W. AGAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 28N52W 21N54W. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 37N35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N42W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N25W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO IN THE TROPICS NEAR 16N41W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 30W-38W. $$ FORMOSA