000 AXNT20 KNHC 060534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N20W 4N32W 3N43W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-25W AND 28W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-41W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... VERY WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN IN THE AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...EXCEPT 10-15 KT W TO NW WINDS IN THE NE GULF. REMNANT SFC TROUGH IS NEARLY DISSIPATED ALONG 87W S OF 26N BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ASSOCIATED PATCHES OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS E OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY FROM 24N-26N E OF 86W. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED CUT OFF CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. EXTENSIVE SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE W GULF. THESE MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN HALF AS LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... QUIET CONDITIONS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CARIB BASIN THIS EVENING WITH NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGERY ONLY REVEALING TYPICAL NARROW SCATTERED STREAMS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS SOME EMBEDDED SHOWER ACTIVITY MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND...BUT MUCH LESS SO THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. LIKE THE GULF OF MEXICO...WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN INDUCED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING ELY TRADES TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EVEN VARIABLE IN THE NW CARIB AS NOTED IN A RECENT QSCAT PASS. ALOFT...SW TO WLY FLOW IS THE THEME ON THE NW SIDE OF A VERY BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ABOVE THE TROPICAL ATLC. A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SEEN ON WV IMAGES IN THE SW CARIB S OF 15N W OF 76W AND IN THE SE CARIB S OF 14N W OF 68W BUT NOT MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE RELAXED TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS NE OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM E-W LATER TODAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... COLD FRONT HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE IN THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC ANALYZED FROM 32N54W TO 25N70W. SAT IMAGERY AND LAST COUPLE SCAT PASSES SHOW LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MAY DECIDE TO DISSIPATE OR EVEN DROP THE BOUNDARY ON THE 06Z MAP. A CLUSTER OF TSTM ACTIVITY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY...HAS BEEN TRAVELING NE WITH THE MID AND UPPER FLOW CURRENTLY FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 67W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 50W IS FAIRLY QUIET UNDER MODERATELY STABLE AIR AND FAIRLY UNIFORM ZONAL UPPER FLOW. THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SFC RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG 40W OR SO FROM 24N SWD AS DEPICTED BY LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING SEEN IN THE LATEST SAT IMAGES. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 38W-41W. STRONG ELY TRADES COVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE TROUGH. THE MID AND UPPER PATTERN IS QUITE AMPLIFIED CONSISTING OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE AZORES AND A BROAD ELONGATED TROUGH TRAPPED S OF THE HIGH. THE BROAD TROUGH CONSISTS OF A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 24N33W AND ANOTHER JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 27N20W. STRONG UPPER WINDS ON THE S SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING AND TRANSPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF THE ITCZ ROUGHLY FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 35W-46W. $$ CANGIALOSI