000 AXNT20 KNHC 052356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED DEC 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N2E 2N20W 2N40W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-39W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN DOMINATES THE GULF RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT N OF 26N WHERE W TO NW WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE N OR NE LATER TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE GULF AND IS NOW IN THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS E OF 81W. REMNANT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. A SFC TROUGH IS DEPICTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM 30N84W TO 24N86W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN GULF. ALOFT...A WELL DEFINED CUT-OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ADVECTING A PLUME OF CLOUDINESS INTO THE WRN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER W TO NW UPPER FLOW INDUCING STABLE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THU. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK 1011 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOT THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUD FREE. WINDS REMAINS LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK PRES PATTERN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE THU THROUGH FRI WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO THE ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK LOW PRES RESIDES IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N78W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ESE TO NEAR 26N72W AND CONTINUES AS COLD FRONT ALONG 26N70W 29N60W AND BEYOND 31N57W. A THIN BAND OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...A 1018 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N58W. SOUTH OF THE HIGH...A WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 58W FROM 11N-19N. A BATCH OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 55W-57W. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BEYOND 32N49W TO 22N54W WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE MOSTLY N OF 28N. A SFC RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 39N21W. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS IN THE SUBTROPICS AND MID-LATITUDES. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN THE TROPICS WHICH IS ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. $$ WADDINGTON