000 AXNT20 KNHC 050545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED DEC 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N23W 5N38W 4N44W EQUATOR50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-31W AND FROM 5N-7N E OF 15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 37W-46W ENHANCED BY A PERSISTENT SFC TROUGH ALONG 40W/41W FROM 4N-11N. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WITH THE GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY DOWN TONIGHT ITS DIFFICULT TO GET A COMPREHENSIVE PICTURE OF THE WEATHER DETAILS. BASED UPON IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON...SFC OBS...AND A 00Z QSCAT OVERPASS WX CONDITIONS APPEAR FAIRLY QUIET BEHIND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN FLA STRAITS TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN SURGING SWD TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. THE SFC FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT NLY 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT EVEN THIS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY. USING A COMBINATION OF GOES-W WV IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...A WELL DEFINED CUT OFF MID TO UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ADVECTING A PLUME OF CLOUDINESS INTO THE WRN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER W TO NW UPPER FLOW INDUCING STABLE CONDITIONS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STREAMS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MUCH OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 72W OR SO. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY BOTH N AND S BUT LITTLE OVER THE ISLAND AT THE MOMENT. LIKE THE GULF OF MEXICO...THERE IS NO GEOSTATIONARY SAT IMAGES TONIGHT OVER THE REGION W OF 75W WHICH MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE THE CURRENT STATE. THE LAST IMAGE AT 1645 Z SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SPIN TO THE CLOUDS IN THE SW CARIB. THIS IS LIKELY STILL OCCURRING TO SOME DEGREE AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL DATA AND SOME CYCLONIC VEERING IN THE SFC OBS. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK PRES PATTERN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N61W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE FLA STRAITS. A 23Z QSCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A PERSISTENT 1012 MB LOW IS STILL SPINNING NEAR 25N51W. THIS LOW HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE PULLING NWD AND MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW. SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LIES FURTHER E IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 41W-43W. ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS SW TO 25N41W. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING FEATURE. SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES. $$ CANGIALOSI