000 AXNT20 KNHC 040533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N25W 5N35W 3N45W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-10N EAST OF 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 26N83W 24N90W 22N93W 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF 94W. S OF THE FRONT NLY WINDS DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. A THIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 79W-82W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SSE OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 64W-65W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROVIDING LIGHT N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N71W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W ATLC CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N58N. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N51W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 18N60W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE LOW CENTER NE ALONG 23N50W 24N45W 28N40W AND EXITS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W. N OF 29N A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDS UP TO 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 16N57W TO 8N58W. A SIMILAR TROUGH BREAKS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 47W AND STRETCHES FROM 1N-9N. ALOFT...A BROAD E-W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 18N TRANSPORTING UPPER MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE EAST. $$ MT/RJW 000 AXNT20 KNHC 040533 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N25W 5N35W 3N45W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-10N EAST OF 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 26N83W 24N90W 22N93W 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF 94W. S OF THE FRONT NLY WINDS DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. A THIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 79W-82W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SSE OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 64W-65W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROVIDING LIGHT N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N71W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W ATLC CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N58N. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N51W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 18N60W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE LOW CENTER NE ALONG 23N50W 24N45W 28N40W AND EXITS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W. N OF 29N A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDS UP TO 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 16N57W TO 8N58W. A SIMILAR TROUGH BREAKS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 47W AND STRETCHES FROM 1N-9N. ALOFT...A BROAD E-W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 18N TRANSPORTING UPPER MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE EAST. $$ MT/RJW