000 AXNT20 KNHC 030546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N24W 5N40W 2N51W. AXIS IS ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 16W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 38W-47W ENHANCED BY A SFC TROUGH ALONG 42W/43W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... DIGGING MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION FROM SW LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS GENERATING A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM AS NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR. NLY WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING IN A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS VERY TRANQUIL AT THE MOMENT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONLY A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS SUPPRESSED BY WIDESPREAD STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SE PROGRESS ALLOWING THE AIRMASS CHANGE TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG LOW-LEVEL N TO NE WINDS TO THE W OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DRIVING STREAMS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIB ROUGHLY FROM 14N-17N E OF 76W. WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE CAUSING A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE CLOUD COVER MIDWAY BETWEEN SOUTH AMERICA AND HISPANIOLA. MUCH OF THE WRN CARIB IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE. NELY TRADE WIND FLOW IS STRONGEST...20-25 KT...IN THE CENTRAL CARIB TONIGHT. THIS FLOW SHOULD SLACKEN BASIN WIDE AND IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 KT AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW ATLC ANALYZED FROM 32N47W TO 22N70W CONTINUING NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AS A NON-THERMAL BOUNDARY. BROKEN PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS IN PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING FAIR WEATHER TO DOMINATE. THE SFC CENTER IS ANALYZED 1027 MB JUST NW OF BERMUDA. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1010 MB LOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF 24N53W. THIS LOW SITS ALONG AN SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BECOME STRETCHED N OF THE LOW DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SCATTERED MODERATE IN NATURE...FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 49W-52W. A LARGER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE SFC LOW IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN 38W-46W N OF 18N. ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 7N-16N. THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TONIGHT AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MIGHT BE FORMING ALONG THE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS... SHEARED BY UPPER SWLY FLOW...FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 51W-53W. THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SFC RIDGING EXTENDING SWD FROM A 1029 MB HIGH MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. NE TO ELY TRADES ARE STRONGEST FROM 16N-25N E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AS SUGGESTED BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY W TO NW ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN RIDGING STRETCHING NWD FROM THE EQUATOR...AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM EUROPE THRU THE CANARY ISLANDS. STRONG FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAINLY S OF 23N. A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N25W IS PRODUCING SIMILAR CLOUDINESS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. $$ CANGIALOSI