000 AXNT20 KNHC 301746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N30W 5N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 27W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-35W AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-39W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US EXTENDING S OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS EAST OF 84W. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WEST OF 86W. WINDS E-NE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE SOUTHERN EDGE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN ADVECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 32N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 29N81W AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS EXTEND 90 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N48W SW TO 16N56W WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE THAT SPANS FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 41W AND 60W. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 130 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS E OF 23W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE JET. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WADDINGTON